Iodine will be participating in a new FP7 project IMPRESSIONS (Impacts and Risks from High-EndScenarios: Strategies for Innovative Solutions ). The project, coordinated by Dr Paula Harrison of the University of Oxford, will start on 1 November and will run for 5 years, with 24 partners and a total budget of almost €9 million. IMPRESSIONS will provide empirically-grounded, transformative science that quantifies and explains the consequences of high-end climate scenarios for both decision-makers and society.
IMPRESSIONS will develop and apply a novel participatory methodology that explicitly deals with uncertainties and strong non-linear changes focussing on high-end climate change, but also including intermediate warming levels. This new methodology will build on the representative concentration pathways (RCPs) and shared socio-economic pathways (SSPs) to create a coherent set of high-end climate and socio-economic scenarios covering multiple scales. These scenarios will be applied to a range of impact, adaptation and vulnerability models that build on theories of complex systems and address tipping elements as key characteristics of such systems.
The models will be embedded within an innovative multi-scale integrated assessment approach to improve analysis of cross-scale interactions and cross-sectoral benefits, conflicts and trade-offs. Model results will inform the development of time- and path-dependent transition pathways. These will include mechanisms to foster synergies between adaptation and mitigation and will aim to build resilience in the face of uncertainty. Methods will be applied within five linked multi-sectoral case studies at global, European and regional/local scales. Stakeholders within these case studies will be fully engaged in the research process through a series of in-depth professionally facilitated workshops which maximise their active participation in defining high-end scenarios and adaptation and mitigation pathways, and in analysing the inherent risks and opportunities of new policy strategies. This will build the capacity of stakeholders to understand the risks, opportunities, costs and benefits associated with different adaptation and mitigation pathways under high-end scenarios, and how they might be effectively embedded within decision-making processes.
Iodine will contribute primarily to WPs 4 and 5. In WP4 we will contribute to the review and implementation of methods for measuring and modelling adaptive capacity. In WP5 we will lead work on review, selection and implementation of existing and novel methods for assessing risks, opportunities, costs and benefits in high-end scenarios, including work with WP3 and WP5 on using the agent-based models to derive endogenous measures of performance for different adaptation policies/pathways.